Thursday, February 9, 2017
Friday, October 17, 2014
Drafting Dominance
Now that we're about a month into drafting Khans, people are starting to figure out the format. This means a few important things that can (and should) dramatically impact your strategy when you sit down for your local FNM draft tonight.
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First, it means that the value of staples are known. You're not going to have an edge on anyone by
first-picking a Debilitating Injury, and in fact you're willingly setting yourself behind by passing one when you shouldn't. You should really just throw the idea of having an intel edge on anyone else right out the window. Instead, you can use this ubiquity to your advantage in reading the table. A P1P3-4 Debilitating Injury used to be a sweet pick-up if you were considering Black. Now it's a very clear signal that Black is open, and you'd be wise to get in. Or that if you pass it, you're probably not going to see much Black coming from your right in P2. The shared knowledge of which cards perform best will weigh heavily on what colours people decide to get into. Pay close attention to these and you'll quickly find yourself in an open colour combination. Others in this category include Ainok Bond-Kin, Hooting Mandrills, Treasure Cruise, and Mardu Warshrieker.
Also note of course the state of rares and uncommons, as if by pick 4 there's only one uncommon left, there's a chance that the higher rarity cards were straight-up solid (or money-draftable), and your confidence in reading signals among the commons might ought to be second-guessed.
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Second, it means that archetypes are predictable. People tend to stick to clans, occasionally with a 4th colour splashed for a bomb, and 5-colour morph madness is a thing. This gives you an opportunity to differentiate yourself and get value off some late pick-ups that don't fit the current common archetypes. For example, Arrow Storm and Hordeling Outburst are difficult to play in most decks, and find themselves lower on the pick order than the should be for sheer power level. This means that if you decide instead to go narrow and stick to two colours or less (okay, one is tough), you can reap a lot of value from cards that people have to responsibly pass on. It also means you can evade a lot of the top answers. Going back to Debilitating Injury again - it's so good because of all the morphs in the set. Well if you're running a bunch of tokens or 3+ toughness face-up creatures, those top-picked cards become immediately worse. There is a strong and underappreciated meta game in limited, and always keep it in mind.
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Last, it means that people are wise to the value of picking dual- and tri-lands higher than at first, when everyone was so excited about the splashy new cards. This means that you'll have to start being quicker about solidifying your colours than in any set before. You can't afford to ignore the lands, because you'll quickly find yourself with none left. But even more importantly, you can't afford to pick the wrong lands, so don't let the pressure to fix early lead you to make mistakes. The current thinking is that a P1P5 dual is a pretty reasonable pick if you're in one of the colours. But keep in mind that at this point if you know only one colour, and don't intend to play more than 3, there's a 50% chance this card is getting cut. Unless your first four picks included both Abzan Guide and Efreet Weaponmaster, hold off a little longer on duals that the overzealous tryhards might advise you to, because it's a quick way to throw away a pick if you're not on target.
Remember that the first two months of any limited format produce important lessons which are then shared and shape an approach to drafting that is more collective than it ought to be. Don't ignore these lessons by any means, but be aware that they continue to shift as the season wears on, and you should never assume that a "correct" approach has been found. You can always stay ahead, or at least stay different.
I'll be putting these bits of advice into practice during my drafts over the next week, and I hope you will too.
Oh, and don't forget to keep sacrificing deck quality to money-draft fetches. That's a rock solid move every time.
Cheers.
First, it means that the value of staples are known. You're not going to have an edge on anyone by first-picking a Debilitating Injury, and in fact you're willingly setting yourself behind by passing one when you shouldn't. You should really just throw the idea of having an intel edge on anyone else right out the window. Instead, you can use this ubiquity to your advantage in reading the table. A P1P3-4 Debilitating Injury used to be a sweet pick-up if you were considering Black. Now it's a very clear signal that Black is open, and you'd be wise to get in. Or that if you pass it, you're probably not going to see much Black coming from your right in P2. The shared knowledge of which cards perform best will weigh heavily on what colours people decide to get into. Pay close attention to these and you'll quickly find yourself in an open colour combination. Others in this category include Ainok Bond-Kin, Hooting Mandrills, Treasure Cruise, and Mardu Warshrieker.
Also note of course the state of rares and uncommons, as if by pick 4 there's only one uncommon left, there's a chance that the higher rarity cards were straight-up solid (or money-draftable), and your confidence in reading signals among the commons might ought to be second-guessed.
Second, it means that archetypes are predictable. People tend to stick to clans, occasionally with a 4th colour splashed for a bomb, and 5-colour morph madness is a thing. This gives you an opportunity to differentiate yourself and get value off some late pick-ups that don't fit the current common archetypes. For example, Arrow Storm and Hordeling Outburst are difficult to play in most decks, and find themselves lower on the pick order than the should be for sheer power level. This means that if you decide instead to go narrow and stick to two colours or less (okay, one is tough), you can reap a lot of value from cards that people have to responsibly pass on. It also means you can evade a lot of the top answers. Going back to Debilitating Injury again - it's so good because of all the morphs in the set. Well if you're running a bunch of tokens or 3+ toughness face-up creatures, those top-picked cards become immediately worse. There is a strong and underappreciated meta game in limited, and always keep it in mind.Last, it means that people are wise to the value of picking dual- and tri-lands higher than at first, when everyone was so excited about the splashy new cards. This means that you'll have to start being quicker about solidifying your colours than in any set before. You can't afford to ignore the lands, because you'll quickly find yourself with none left. But even more importantly, you can't afford to pick the wrong lands, so don't let the pressure to fix early lead you to make mistakes. The current thinking is that a P1P5 dual is a pretty reasonable pick if you're in one of the colours. But keep in mind that at this point if you know only one colour, and don't intend to play more than 3, there's a 50% chance this card is getting cut. Unless your first four picks included both Abzan Guide and Efreet Weaponmaster, hold off a little longer on duals that the overzealous tryhards might advise you to, because it's a quick way to throw away a pick if you're not on target.Remember that the first two months of any limited format produce important lessons which are then shared and shape an approach to drafting that is more collective than it ought to be. Don't ignore these lessons by any means, but be aware that they continue to shift as the season wears on, and you should never assume that a "correct" approach has been found. You can always stay ahead, or at least stay different.
I'll be putting these bits of advice into practice during my drafts over the next week, and I hope you will too.
Oh, and don't forget to keep sacrificing deck quality to money-draft fetches. That's a rock solid move every time.
Cheers.
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